Manuel
04/18/2023, 7:05 AMneuralforecast
with hierarchicalforecast
for hierarchical reconciliation (I've also seen HINT
, but the provided reconciliation methods, MinTrace
and BottomUp
, are not suitable for my case). Now the problem is this: since time series in the dataset have a hierarchical relationship and time series at the higher levels tend to have higher values (because they are the sum of the hierarchically lower time series), loss functions such as plain RMSE
and MAE
seem to be unsuitable because the errors at the lower levels of the hierarchy, being smaller in absolute value, tend to be penalized too little. A workaround might be to use scale invariant loss functions such as SMAPE
, which being a percentage error might mitigate the problem. Another solution might be to give more weight in the loss function (e.g., RMSE) to hierarchically lower time series. Do you know if with neuralforecast (and in particular with NHITS
) there is a way to give a higher weight to some unique_id during model training? Do you have any other ideas about this? I also tried using losses such as PMM, GMM and NBMM but they did not give good results. ThanksKin Gtz. Olivares
04/18/2023, 10:21 PMManuel
04/24/2023, 9:17 AMKin Gtz. Olivares
04/24/2023, 10:06 PM