Jon T
12/22/2024, 8:18 PMOlivier
12/30/2024, 1:12 PMJon T
01/01/2025, 9:53 PMCurrently, the historical forecasts are not affected bySo basically, would like to understand where the fixed horizons are defined. And a related question: Let's say we have 5min freq, and the fixed h = 12 (1hr). After the historical forecasts are back-propagated, what's the correct way to interpret; the TimeGPT value for a given timestamp reflect the forecast horizon? e.g. TimeGPT value @ 08:00 = 100. meaning, at 07:00, the forecast of 100 was made for 08:00? Ultimately trying to understand if add_history could be used as a reasonable backtest (at least for that fixed horizon), or if we'd need to create our own history by requesting forecasts across a historical dataset, and have a fix horizon depending on the frequency of the data.h
Olivier
01/06/2025, 5:50 PMSo basically, would like to understand where the fixed horizons are defined.
It's fixed, so it can't be changed.
Re. the other question: your interpretation is correct, we pick a fixed number of historical datapoints, and make a forecast h
steps ahead, and concatenate all those forecasts.
I think for backtesting it makes much more sense to use cross-validation, because what you are interested in is to get a notion of the performance on historical data in a manner most reflecting the actual set-up.Jon T
01/08/2025, 12:27 AMCurrently, the historical forecasts are not affected by h
The question, in other words:
Can I see the list of fixed mappings?
If my freq='5min' - what h
will the model use for history?
Without knowing what the forecast horizon was for the historical forecasts, we don't know whether they're relevant for us or not.