How can we perform autoML per unique id, so not a ...
# hierarchicalforecast
b
How can we perform autoML per unique id, so not a global one. Is that possible?
o
Sure, just write a loop that iterates over all your unique_ids. Note sure why you'd want that, though, it's then maybe easier to just use a StatsForecast model that creates a unique model for every timeseries. Optimizing per series is a bit weird when using a model that ingests all unique series and of which the accuracy benefit comes from pooling unique_ids in the same training set (such as MLForecast models, or NeuralForecast models)
b
Thanks. Does AutoARIMA fit a unique model per
unique_id
? Would a general model perform better? I was thinking about optimizing per unique series to improve accuracy.
o
Yes. Yes. If the time series exhibit any similarity, I'd always pick a general model, these perform better.
1
b
Since each
unique_id
has somewhat different dynamics, is there another solution you’d recommend to capture these differences while still benefiting from a general model? I am trying to do a comparative study against the statsforecast, that is why I am asking.
o
A properly trained general model should already capture these differences and should outperform statsforecast. E.g. a well engineered LightGBM
b
Even when a lot of unique ID have very different patterns?
o
Yes
1
b
Hi, what do you mean by 'well-engineered' LightGBM?
o
LightGBM with good features, good hyperparameters, good cross-validation setup
b
With good features, would you also recommend including unique id specific variables as dummy variables? So for example, age, gender etc.
o
Sure, just try out and see what it does to performance.